Project DN16/6/2017 “Integrated Approach for Modeling of the Forest Fires Spread” funded by the National Science Fund of Bulgaria is dedicated to modelling forest fire spread with the help of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and the Game Method for Modelling paradigm by calibrating the data to the vegetation characteristics inherent to Bulgarian plant life.
Fires are one of the usual threats against the functioning of forest ecosystems. They are defined as natural disaster, since in their biggest part they are beyond humans’ control. They directly affect society and environment, with forest fires annually destroying millions of hectares of forests, causing human casualties, loss of wildlife, partial devastation of the soil’s top layer, as well as of places for recreation and leisure.
The consequences of wildfires’ impact are destroyed unique ecosystems, species, populations and habitats that are subjects of protection by national and European legislation and by the international conventions in the area of protection of nature and biodiversity. They lead to huge economic losses as a result of devastation of valuable resources, while the funds required for their extinguishing and damage recovery are immense.
It is considered that wildfires contribute to raising the levels of harmful emissions in atmosphere, which affects climate. Forest fires also indirectly affect the processes of erosion, landslides and floods, caused by intensive rainfall on steep terrains, where vegetation has been destroyed due to fire incidents and fire related calamities.
The project is dedicated to the development of mathematical models of forest fire spreads. For main modelling apparatus, the game method has been chosen, and the results from its application will be compared to other methods. A software produce will be developed, implementing a wide class of (two- and three-dimensional) game models. The Game Method of Modelling gives the opportunity, on one hand, for modification and up-scaling the models and the rules of their functioning, and, on the other hand, combination between different models. The members of the project team have rich experience in both handling these modelling tools, as well as with the real modelled processes of forest fire spreads. Thereupon our expectations that a series of significant results in the area of forest fire spreads modelling will be obtained. These results will be published in relevant journals, reported in front of conference, and at a later stage of the project implementation will be collected in a monograph. During the project timespan, the team members will collaborate closely together with colleagues from other countries, who are specialists in the area, so that we would be able to integrate new research results from around the world.